Wednesday, April 15, 2009

NBA Playoffs Simulator

I have taken the basis used to create the MLB playoff simulator and constructed a version for a best of seven series. This simulator calculates the conditional probabilities for each team given a 16 team, best-of-seven tournament.
Currently, this is best suited for tracking the NBA playoffs and John Hollinger runs a similar simulation here.

The NFL and NHL playoffs reseed their brackets so look for a future revision to tidy up the simulator for use in those sports.

NBA Playoffs Simulator
Original author- Erich
Revision date- 20090415


Hambone said...

Nice work on the NBA simulator. If Utah is anywhere close to 21% to beat the Lakers, that +1700 number they're getting is ridiculous.

xlssports said...

The values I used were for the regular season and the Lakers are sure to get a significant boost from Bynum's return.

Note that I updated some formulas as of 4/18 along with the default Home & Road pythags with the help of basketball-reference

radekalcheck said...

You can use game lines to make adjustments to the pythag, sort of like what VW did with the college basketball simulations.

radekalcheck said...

The Lakers may be the UNC of this playoffs, in the sense that all the sims are underrating them. I'm looking at the lines, and the Lakers are 12 point favorites over the Jazz at home, the same as the Cavs at 12 over the Pistons at home, and the Jazz are better than the Pistons. So based on that, it appears Vegas thinks the Lakers are the best team in the NBA.

xlssports said...

The Lakers certainly deserve a boost with Bynum in the fold, and the Pythag numbers included in this version are not adjusted for regular season SoS.
I'm not in a position to suggest what kind of boost the Lakers should get, but you make a good suggestion in using vegas lines to infer their opinions on team strength. Maybe I will look at this later and share my findings here.

Jonny said...

Nice work. FYI though, if you advance the teams on the bracket tab, the improper teams update on the settings tab.

xlssports said...

thanks for the catch. I am working on a fix and almost there with a version that allows for reseeding.

xlssports said...

I put in a quick update to fix the problem Jonny reported.