Monday, March 8, 2010

Bracket Odds

While this is not the most refined workbook released, this is sure to be one of the most interesting. This workbook generates advancement probabilities for each team in a 64-team tournament and is designed with basketball in mind.

In the past, my bracket picks generated by such a model were graciously hosted on David Berri's Wages of Wins blog (article links available here).

Additional credit for this workbook's development goes to its statistical forefathers, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin, and to Adam M., a former blogger and now proud resident of the Contrarianville community for his input on conditional probabilities.

Note that macros must be enabled for the custom functions to operate properly. This workbook has calculations set to manual due to the volume & complexity. To trigger a calculation, press F9. To turn on automatic calculations, use Tools\Options and find the Calculation tab.

Original author- Erich
Revision date- 20100308

Edit: File updated with 2010 seeding and metrics, corrections on results validations
Revision date- 20100320


G Wolf said...

Looks awesome. Will this be updated once the seeds are set, or are we on our own for that?

xlssports said...

I will update with a revision once the 2010 seeds are set.

Know that you can simulate the conference tournaments within this tool by setting "bye" opponents to very low or zero ratings