tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post3862346572493685021..comments2009-03-05T06:58:11.165-08:00Erichhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09109136457075766140noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-35755258053712203012009-03-05T06:58:00.000-08:002009-03-05T06:58:00.000-08:00I think you're right about the tiebreakers not providing much additional utility in a preseason simulation. If you do add a mid-season functionality to the spreadsheet, it might then be important to adjust for tiebreakers.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, I'm a handicapper rather than a programmer, so I can't really offer any advice on how to add functions to the spreadsheet without increasing the run-time.<BR/><BR/>It's a very nice simulator, but I do think the default standard deviation is set too low; something between .03 and .04 would better reflect the accuracy of today's best projections. Of course, the user can just do this himself.<BR/><BR/>One more user-friendly feature might be an input to adjust for the AL/NL talent gap. Right now I'm accounting for this by setting the average AL team to a run differential of +40 and the average NL team at -35, which seems to be working fairly well.j holzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13428814047654767163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-10964726934076702012009-03-02T16:06:00.000-08:002009-03-02T16:06:00.000-08:00I had previously released a baseball playoff simulator <A HREF="http://www.xlssports.com/2008/09/baseball-playoffs-simulator.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>. <BR/><BR/>The main reason I haven't incorporated it into this model deals with tiebreakers.<BR/><BR/>Right now, if 2 teams tie for a division or wild card, each gets credit for 1/2 of a crown. This is great for the season simulation, but bad for setting up a playoff tree. <BR/><BR/>The tiebreaker formulas are difficult, but even if feasible, they would likely add a lot of formula overhead, thus increasing the run time for a perceived minimal increase in utility (I have some hangups with the accuracy of the playoff simulation in the first place, such as the lack of adjustments for playoff built squads.)<BR/><BR/>I am quite interested in your own projections and if you have any advice on mechanically how I should add such functionality in, please drop me an email.xlssportshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09300865025846547738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-7594812792055117162009-03-02T14:20:00.000-08:002009-03-02T14:20:00.000-08:00Also, adding playoffs to the simulation would be neat. If the Orioles can only advance to the postseason when they overperform and get a little lucky, it'd be interesting to see how that affects their hopes of winning a playoff series.<BR/><BR/>The software seems to be running very well, keep up the good work.j holzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13428814047654767163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-32008515532523713742009-03-01T14:44:00.000-08:002009-03-01T14:44:00.000-08:00j holz,<BR/>You are correct the random #'s can be hardcoded to record actual results, though this too can be automated...<BR/><BR/>I currently have similar models for the NBA and NCAAB that update given game results and team performance (PF/PA).<BR/>Once the MLB season starts, I'll likely add the same functionality to this worksheet and would appreciate any pointers to a good source of data.xlssportshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09300865025846547738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-85610750546192366622009-03-01T12:12:00.000-08:002009-03-01T12:12:00.000-08:00This software looks really useful. Any interest in making it usable in mid-season, using each team's current record as an additional input? Or could this already be accomplished by setting the results of finished games to 0 or 1 on the Engine page?j holzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13428814047654767163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-41019734713084117342009-02-25T19:56:00.000-08:002009-02-25T19:56:00.000-08:00Via email, VegasWatch asked:<BR/>"I'm assuming the stdev column shifts around a team's true talent from sim to sim? What have you been putting that as?"<BR/><BR/>My reply:<BR/>Thats right. In the past, people <A HREF="http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/projecting-the-2008-09-nba-season/" REL="nofollow">have complained</A> that strong teams can show a 100% chance to make the playoffs. Incorporating a stdev allows for a basic variability in team performance, kind of like Pecota&#39;s 10, 50, and 90th percentile performance.<BR/>As for a recommended value, I&#39;m just the excel guy. I leave it up to users to come up with a suggestion and hopefully some guidelines on which teams have a higher StDev vs a lower one (factors may include Stars &amp; Scrubs, team age, key injury risk, player turnover, trade deadline flexibility).xlssportshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09300865025846547738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-2269039625115237182009-02-25T14:15:00.000-08:002009-02-25T14:15:00.000-08:00Unfortunately, I do not deal with OpenOffice so I am not sure. My guess is the formulas will transfer, but the macro will not. <BR/>In the immediate term, I will not be able to install OpenOffice &amp; check, but would love to know if someone does.xlssportshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09300865025846547738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6149528367149567240.post-20302895888552582572009-02-25T12:56:00.000-08:002009-02-25T12:56:00.000-08:00Will this sheet work in OpenOffice's Calc?SportsGuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02900787022759289513noreply@blogger.com